{
  "title": "Quantum resource estimates for RSA, elliptic curves, AES and SHA-256, 2003-2026",
  "article": "https://synxcrypto.com/how-many-qubits-to-break-encryption.php#estimates",
  "reviewed": "2026-09-23",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "scope": "Editorial comparison of published estimates; logical and physical qubits are different units; not a SYNX measurement.",
  "columns": [
    "Target",
    "Algorithm",
    "Qubits",
    "Time",
    "Source",
    "Source URL"
  ],
  "rows": [
    [
      "RSA-2048",
      "Shor",
      "4,099 logical (2n+3 circuit)",
      "—",
      "Beauregard, 2003",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0205095"
    ],
    [
      "RSA-2048",
      "Shor",
      "20 million noisy physical",
      "8 hours",
      "Gidney & Ekerå, 2019",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.09749"
    ],
    [
      "RSA-2048",
      "Shor",
      "Fewer than 1 million noisy physical",
      "Less than a week",
      "Gidney, 2025",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.15917"
    ],
    [
      "RSA-2048",
      "Shor",
      "Fewer than 100,000 physical (QLDPC codes)",
      "Not given in the abstract",
      "Webster et al. (Pinnacle), 2026",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.11457"
    ],
    [
      "RSA-2048",
      "Shor",
      "As few as 10,000 neutral atoms",
      "10–100× longer than 256-bit ECC",
      "Cain et al. (Caltech, Oratomic), 2026",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28627"
    ],
    [
      "256-bit ECC (secp256k1, P-256)",
      "Shor",
      "2,330 logical",
      "—",
      "Roetteler et al., 2017",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06752"
    ],
    [
      "256-bit ECC",
      "Shor",
      "About 13 million physical (one day); about 317 million (one hour)",
      "1 day / 1 hour",
      "Webber et al., 2021",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.12371"
    ],
    [
      "256-bit ECC",
      "Shor",
      "About 6.9 million physical (photonic active-volume modules)",
      "One key every 10 minutes",
      "Litinski, 2023",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08585"
    ],
    [
      "256-bit ECC",
      "Shor",
      "<1,200 or <1,450 logical; <500,000 physical",
      "Minutes",
      "Babbush et al. (Google), 2026",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28846"
    ],
    [
      "256-bit ECC",
      "Shor",
      "835 logical (lowest published)",
      "Not estimated; far more gates",
      "Luo et al., 2026",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.13816"
    ],
    [
      "256-bit ECC (P-256)",
      "Shor",
      "26,000 neutral atoms",
      "A few days",
      "Cain et al. (Caltech, Oratomic), 2026",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28627"
    ],
    [
      "256-bit ECC (secp256k1)",
      "Shor",
      "About 1,450 logical; 19,397 trapped ions",
      "About 25.7 days",
      "Häner et al. (IonQ), 2026",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.05625"
    ],
    [
      "AES-128 / 192 / 256",
      "Grover",
      "2,953 / 4,449 / 6,681 logical",
      "T-depth ~2^80 / 2^112 / 2^144 sequential steps",
      "Grassl et al., 2016",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.04965"
    ],
    [
      "SHA-256 preimage",
      "Grover",
      "About 2^12.6 (≈6,200) logical",
      "~2^153.8 surface-code cycles",
      "Amy et al., 2016",
      "https://arxiv.org/abs/1603.09383"
    ]
  ]
}