Quantum Computing Timeline: When Will Crypto Break?

When will quantum computers threaten current cryptography? Expert estimates vary, but the uncertainty itself argues for adopting the SynX quantum-resistant wallet now.

Current State (2024-2025)

• Largest quantum computers: ~1,000+ qubits
• Error rates: Still too high for cryptographic attacks
• Logical qubits achieved: Very few
• Practical cryptanalysis: Not yet possible

Expert Predictions

Requirements for Breaking Crypto

To break 256-bit ECDSA (Bitcoin, Ethereum):

• ~4,000+ logical qubits needed
• Each logical qubit requires ~1,000 physical qubits
• Total: millions of physical qubits
• Plus error correction and stable operation

Factors Accelerating Timeline

• Massive government/corporate investment
• Breakthroughs in error correction
• New qubit technologies
• Novel algorithm improvements

Why Uncertainty Favors Early Adoption

Even if CRQC is 15 years away:

• Harvest now, decrypt later is happening
• Migration takes years at organizational scale
• Blockchain assets should outlive their protection
• No cost to adopting SynX quantum-resistant wallet now

Milestone Markers to Watch

• Logical qubit error rates below threshold
• Successful small-scale factoring demonstrations
• 1,000+ logical qubit systems
• Government warning announcements

The Long Game

Cryptocurrency is designed for long-term value storage:

• Assets held 10+ years face full quantum threat window
• Legacy signatures on blockchain are permanent
• The SynX quantum-resistant wallet protects across timeline uncertainty

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I wait for clearer timeline?

No. By the time timeline is clear, data has already been harvested. Adopt quantum resistance now.

What if quantum computers never become practical?

The SynX quantum-resistant wallet provides excellent security regardless. You lose nothing by being prepared.