What is Bitcoins quantum breaking point?

Bitcoin ECDSA requires approximately 4,000-6,000 logical qubits running Shors algorithm. With error correction overhead, this translates to roughly 1-4 million physical qubits.

When will quantum computers reach Bitcoins breaking point?

Expert estimates: IBM targets 100,000 qubits by 2033. With current progress, cryptographically relevant quantum computers are expected between 2028-2035.

Which company will break Bitcoin first?

The race includes IBM (100K by 2033), Google (aiming for supremacy in cryptography), and classified programs in China and NSA. Any could reach the threshold first.

📈 Quantum Computing Timeline

Bitcoin's Breaking Point Analysis

🏁 The Qubit Race

Year	IBM	Google	China	BTC Threat Level
2019	27	72 (Sycamore)	~50	🟢 LOW
2023	1,121 (Condor)	~100	~500+	🟢 LOW
2025	4,000+ (projected)	~1,000	~2,000+	🟡 MEDIUM
2028	~20,000	~10,000	Unknown	🟠 HIGH
2033	100,000	~50,000	Unknown	🔴 CRITICAL

💥 The Breaking Point

Bitcoin ECDSA (secp256k1) 256-bit keys

Shor's Algorithm Requirement ~4,000-6,000 logical qubits

Error Correction Overhead ~1,000x physical qubits

Breaking Point ~1-4 million physical qubits

Reality Check: Error correction is improving exponentially. IBM's roadmap suggests 100,000 qubits by 2033 with much better error rates.

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